Nhận diện đầu cơ







          Từ cuối năm 2007 và nhất là đầu năm 2008 đến nay cụm từ “đầu cơ” bắt đầu xuất hiện trong đời sống xã hội và trở nên phổ biến trên các trang báo. Lạm phát và đầu cơ ai cũng hiểu là sự song trùng.

          Ngày 27-5 ở các Hà Nội TPHCM và một số thành phố lớn trong cả nước xuất hiện cảnh mọi người ồ ạt đi mua đô la với giá 17.500 đồng/ 1USD. Trong khi đó theo công bố của Ngân hàng Nhà nước (NHNN) tỷ giá đô la trong ngày này là 16.060 đồng/1 USD. Nguyên nhân đẩy giá đô la trên thị trường tự do tăng mạnh do nhu cầu mua đô la từ một bộ phận dân cư. Tâm lý này xuất phát từ thông tin: tỷ lệ lạm phát tiếp tục tăng cao trong tháng 5 vừa được công bố và chắc chắn có yếu tố đầu cơ (chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI) tháng 5 so với tháng 4 tăng 3 91% tính chung 5 tháng CPI tăng 15 96% trong khi cùng kỳ năm 2007 là 4 32%). Theo ông Vụ trưởng Vụ Quản lý ngoại hối NHNN biến động này không thực sự đáng lo ngại vì quy mô thị trường tự do rất nhỏ. Đáng lo ngại ở chỗ người dân có thể bị rủi ro cao khi bán đô la lúc giá thấp và đổ xô đi mua đô la khiến  giá đô la lên cao hoặc mua phải ngoại tệ giả. Ông khẳng định: chênh lệch cung cầu về ngoại tệ luôn nằm trong tầm kiểm soát; ngành ngân hàng luôn đảm bảo đáp ứng nhu cầu ngoại tệ của nền kinh tế đủ khả năng can thiệp để tỷ giá không có biến động lớn.

          Trong năm 2008 những chuyện nghịch lý như thế này từng xuất hiện và rõ ràng có sự tiếp tay của yếu tố đầu cơ. Cách đây không lâu ở hầu hết các địa phương xảy ra cảnh rồng rắn đi mua gạo làm cho giá gạo bị đẩy lên cao không ngờ có những nơi tăng gấp rưỡi gấp hai lần. VN là nước thuần nông năng lực xuất khẩu gạo đứng hàng nhất nhì thế giới lại xuất hiện cảnh chen lấn mua gạo quả là chuyện không tin nổi. Vậy nhưng phải đến khi Thủ tướng Chính phủ Bộ NN&PTNN tuyên bố thẳng thừng là không thiếu gạo đồng thời áp dụng hàng loạt  các biện pháp bình ổn giá gạo mới vãn hồi. “Gương  mặt đầu cơ” ở đây đã thể hiện rõ. Lại thêm chuyện khi Chính phủ trong nỗ lực kiềm chế lạm phát đã quyết định giảm đầu tư công giảm đầu tư xây dựng cơ bản các công trình chưa thực sự bức thiết; thị trường nhà đất đóng băng...  thì ngược lại giá vật liệu xây dựng (xi măng sắt thép gạch...) bỗng tăng đột biến. Những “nghịch lý” này có nhiều nguyên nhân trong đó có yếu tố tâm lý và do đầu cơ.

          Diễn biến trên cho thấy gia nhập sân chơi lớn WTO không chỉ đòi hỏi năng lực dự báo chính xác sự điều hành đúng đắn nhanh nhạy của Chính phủ và các bộ ngành liên quan mà còn phụ thuộc rất nhiều vào yếu tố tâm lý cùng với cách hành xử phù hợp của người dân. Biến động của nền kinh tế thế giới hiện nay có thể tác động đến cả người dân sống sau luỹ tre làng đó là điều hiển nhiên nhưng nhất thiết chuyện “đục nước béo cò” “tát nước theo mưa” của những kẻ đầu cơ trục lợi bất chính cần phải được nhận diện và xử lý rốt ráo để góp phần làm bình ổn đời sống kinh tế xã hội.

N.Đ.N

http://cadn.com.vn/News/Chinh-Tri-Xa-Hoi/So-Tay-Nha-Bao/2008/05/8833.ca

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